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Beijing has sent its coast guard through the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japanese territory as China ramps up strains following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the recent developments occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “reunification”. It has not ruled out the military option. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the United States and other allies including Japan, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was likely the maritime patrol, operating around the island over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from China since the Japanese official made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Japan by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.