Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
